Greg Gianforte Won in Montana, But the Trend Bodes Very Poorly for the GOP Nationally

Republican Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Rob Quist in a Montana special election last night. He also apologized for beating up a Guardian reporter. But he still won, and the altercation with Ben Jacobs seems to have had little or no effect, in part because over half the votes had been cast via early voting and in part because Republicans in Montana are apparently rubes who thought it was great that their candidate beat up a reporter.

That’s the bad news. That’s all I want to say about the bad news.

Here’s the good news, if you’re looking ahead to 2018.

Rob Quist lost by only 6 points in district where Donald Trump won by 20. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, this district is Very Red. There are 120 Red districts that are less Red than this Montana at-large district. Based on the demographics, a typical Republican would defeat a typical Democrat by 11 points. The Republicans won by 16 points in 2016; 15 in 2014; 11 in 2012; 27 points in 2010; and 32 points in 2008. In other words, Republicans have enjoyed huge, huge wins in this district for the last decade.

Quist lost by 6 points, even though he was a very weak candidate who had a lot of baggage (granted, he was also running against a weak candidate).

But, let’s say conservatively, that Quist and Gianforte are evenly matched, and where a typical Republican would win by 11 points, this Republican won only by 6. That means that the national political climate is swinging toward the Democrats by around 5 points.

So, in that most conservative of estimates, where Democrats gain 5 points in each race nationally because their President is bonehead, the Democrats would take back 53 seats in the 2018 midterms. The Democrats need only a net gain of 24 seats. Therefore, even assuming that only half of the Districts get a 5 point swing, the Democrats can still regain the House.

Keep in mind, also, that we are still a year and a half away from the midterm elections, and Donald Trump continues daily damage to his Presidency and the Republican party.

Even more encouraging is this: The Georgia 6th district is +8 for the Republicans, meaning that a typical Republican running against a typical Democrat in that district wins by 8 points. In polls right now, the Democrat Jon Ossoff is leading by 7 points. That’s a 15 point swing.

Strictly mathematically speaking, the Democrats only need a TWO POINT swing in every district to regain 25 seats and take back the House.

In other words, news of out of Montana last night was dispiriting, but the broader national trend as we head toward 2018? It looks very positive.


Trend DuJour: Superfood Cocktails

Following through with resolutions get more difficult the deeper we get into 2017. Committing to Sober January is not for everyone, so we’ve uncovered the latest trend that will remove the guilt trip that follows a boozy night out with friends.

Superfood cocktails allow you to indulge in tasty drinks while forgoing the extra sugar and empty calories of a traditional appletini. They utilize the restorative elements of healthy foods to create delicious libations that won’t break your New Year’s resolutions.

We caught up with expert mixologist Brad Stanton from the Rosewood Hotel Georgia in Vancouver, Canada to give us the rundown on his favorite superfood cocktail and the benefits that go along with it.

What are some of the perks that go along with consuming superfood cocktails?

BS: Superfood cocktails leverage the nutrient-rich characteristics and natural flavors of health foods to create unique and exciting beverages that can be enjoyed in a social setting. From pomegranates and blueberries to less conventional ingredients such as Greek yogurt and avocado, superfoods add a delicious and nutritious component to any cocktail.

Do you notice a change immediately after drinking a superfood cocktail compared to your standard appletini?

BS: It depends on the superfood cocktail but certainly in some cases drinks produce an immediate effect. The way we perceive taste is heavily influenced by environmental factors including our expectations after selecting a drink on a cocktail menu. Physically, the benefits derived from superfoods vary and may have more subtle effects depending on the potency of the ingredient. In the case of the Turmeric Fizz, I’ve had many guests say they feel energetic and uplifted after drinking!

Brad Stanton

What are your favorite ingredients to use?

BS: There are so many superfoods out there to pick from! Some of my favorites (in no particular order) include astragalus, cayenne pepper, matcha green tea, blueberries, almonds, coconut and even pure maple syrup, which is packed with antioxidants. In the future, I would love to use spirulina in a cocktail!

Can you create a superfood cocktail in your own kitchen?

BS: Yes, anyone can make a superfood cocktail at home—all you need is the proper ingredients, a little creativity and your spirit of choice.  

What are the highlights of your drink of choice; The Turmeric Fizz?                                                                               

BS: The Turmeric Fizz is an effervescent juggernaut that glows a bright and vibrant orange color.  The drink not only invigorates the palate with poignant spice notes, but provides drinkers with antioxidants, antibacterial agents and anti-inflammatory characteristics derived from the turmeric. 

What are your suggestions for people just dipping their toes into this trend?

BS: I encourage people to dive right in! Engage with experts at health food stores, do some research online and head to your local market to pick up some ingredients to experiment with. Using your senses of taste and smell, try and “understand” the flavor profile of the superfood and think about how it would work in a cocktail. Most importantly though, have fun with it!

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